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科学预测未来人口变化趋势及其相关经济社会影响，是积极调整宏观、微观政策，有效应对人口变化挑战的重要依据。文章基于第七次全国人口普查数据，采用队列要素法，并使用PADIS-INT软件建立模型，设置低、中、高三种方案，对河北省2021—2050年人口规模和结构进行预测。就预测结果看，未来河北省人口负增长趋势已成必然且形势严峻。在三种方案下，到2050年，河北省总人口分别为6414.12万人、6903.77万人和7100.77万人，均为持续下降态势；育龄妇女规模将不足总人口的20%，也呈缓慢减少趋势；劳动人口分别为3780.64万人、3958.71万人和4029.94万人，都呈现持续萎缩态势；而总抚养比将达到69.66%、74.40%和76.20%，社会的整体抚养压力将持续增加；学龄人口也将持续减少，各类教育资源面临优化整合。因此，应积极系统应对人口负增长趋势，尽快优化鼓励生育的政策措施，积极构建生育友好型社会，并持续深入研究人口负增长带来的长期综合性影响，以有效应对人口负增长带来的社会问题。

Scientifically predicting the future population change trend and impact on the economy and society is an important basis for actively adjusting macro or micro policies and effectively coping with the challenges of population change. Based on the seventh national population census, this paper uses the cohort-component method and PADIS-INT software to set up models and three scenarios of low, medium, and high, and predicts the population size and structure of Hebei Province from 2021 to 2050. According to the prediction results, the negative population growth in Hebei Province has become inevitable and the situation is severe in future. Under the three scenarios, the total population of Hebei Province will be 64.1412 million, 69.0377 million, and 71.0077 million by 2050, all of which will continue to decline; the share of women of childbearing age will be less than 20% of the total population,which is also a slow reduction trend; the working-age population will be 37.8064 million, 39.5871 million, and40.2994 million, all of which will continue to shrink; while the total dependency ratio will reach 69.66%, 74.40%,and 76.20%, the overall dependency pressure of society will continue to increase; the school-age population will also continue to decrease, and various educational resources will face optimization and integration. Therefore, we should actively and systematically respond to the negative population growth trend, optimize fertility policies and measures, actively build a birth-friendly society, continue to make an in-depth study of the long-term comprehensive impact of negative population growth, in order to effectively cope with the social problems caused by negative population growth.